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Losses

Every graded loss in the public ledger.

Buffalo Bills logoBuffalo Bills@Los Angeles Rams logoLos Angeles RamsNFL
37–34FINAL
Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET

Pick: Rams -3.5

NFL Pick of the Day
Loss-1.49u
Best price: +101 Kalshi To win:1.5u

Analysis

The Rams rank third in the NFL in defensive EPA per play at -0.132 and second in yards allowed per play at 4.18. Buffalo ranks 29th in defensive EPA per play and 28th in success rate allowed. Those are opposite ends of the same distribution, and they share a field tonight with Lo…

Denver Broncos logoDenver Broncos@Los Angeles Chargers logoLos Angeles ChargersNFL
23–17FINAL
Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET

Pick: Chargers +3.5

Loss-1.1u
Best price: -110 Bet MGM To win:1u
Minnesota Vikings logoMinnesota Vikings@New Orleans Saints logoNew Orleans SaintsNFL
23–13FINAL
Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET

Pick: Saints +2.5

Loss-1.14u
Best price: -114 Caesars To win:1u
Dallas Cowboys logoDallas Cowboys@Houston Texans logoHouston TexansNFL
34–30FINAL
Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET

Pick: Texans Moneyline

Loss-1.48u
Best price: -148 DraftKings To win:1u
Pittsburgh Steelers logoPittsburgh Steelers@Cleveland Browns logoCleveland BrownsNFL
24–27FINAL
Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET

Pick: Steelers vs. Browns Under 38.5

NFL Pick of the Day
Loss-1.62u
Best price: -108 Kalshi To win:1.5u

Analysis

39 points across roughly 22 combined possessions asks these two offenses to average about 1.75 points per drive. Pittsburgh is producing 1.3 and Cleveland 1.6, against a league baseline near 2.0. That gap is where we see the most value, and what sits underneath it is structural r…

Carolina Panthers logoCarolina Panthers@Cleveland Browns logoCleveland BrownsNFL
18–21FINAL
Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Pick: Panthers Moneyline

Loss-1.3u
Best price: -130 DraftKings To win:1u
Seattle Seahawks logoSeattle Seahawks@Washington Commanders logoWashington CommandersNFL
31–33FINAL
Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Pick: Seahawks -7.5

Loss-1.12u
Best price: -112 Caesars To win:1u
Jacksonville Jaguars logoJacksonville Jaguars@Denver Broncos logoBroncosNFL
13–20FINAL
Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET

Pick: Jaguars +3

NFL Pick of the Day
Loss-1.73u
Best price: -115 theScore Bet To win:1.5u
Dallas Cowboys logoDallas Cowboys@New York Giants logoNew York GiantsNFL
20–28FINAL
Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET

Pick: Cowboys -3

Loss-1.08u
Best price: -108 BetMGM To win:1u